The closure of the Strait of Hormuz since late February 2026 has shaped the year for LNG shipping. It cut off almost a fifth of global LNG supply and briefly lifted charter rates, yet by early October spot rates had fallen 83–91% from their wartime peaks. The resulting jump in gas prices has also hit demand. In Asia, importers have canceled or reconsidered LNG projects, and IEEFA forecasts that European LNG demand could fall about 23% between 2025 and 2030. The war has delayed the fleet’s surplus, not removed it.

Owners are still adding ships. The large LNG carrier fleet has grown from at least 335 vessels in 2016 to 833 today, and a further 278 are on order, about US$69 billion of committed capital. Under the IEA’s net-zero pathway, no new LNG carriers are needed at all. This report finds that stranding has already begun, that exposure is concentrated in a small number of owners, and that more than half of the capacity in service and on order will still be within its design life after 2050.

Owners and financiers who plan now for a smaller LNG fleet will protect more of their asset value than those who keep adding capacity to an oversupplied market. The report calls on:

• Shipowners to avoid speculative newbuilds and order only against long-term charters, test fleet values against a 25-year economic life and climate-aligned demand, share charter cover and useful-life assumptions vessel by vessel with lenders and investors, and set out how their LNG fleet will peak and decline

• Banks, lessors and export credit agencies to match loan tenors to firm charter cover, report their LNG carrier exposure, and test whether public guarantees for new LNG carriers are consistent with their climate commitments and risk appetite

• Marine insurers to reflect transition risk in hull and machinery pricing, and use annual renewals to discuss clients’ transition plans, including fleet age and utilization